VIP: Incorporating Human Cognitive Biases in a Probabilistic Model of Retweeting

Information spread in social media depends on a number of factors, including how the site displays information, how users navigate it to find items of interest, users' tastes, and the `virality' of information, i.e., its propensity to be adopted, or retweeted, upon exposure. Probabilistic models can learn users' tastes from the history of their item adoptions and recommend new items to users. However, current models ignore cognitive biases that are known to affect behavior. Specifically, people pay more attention to items at the top of a list than those in lower positions. As a consequence, items near the top of a user's social media stream have higher visibility, and are more likely to be seen and adopted, than those appearing below. Another bias is due to the item's fitness: some items have a high propensity to spread upon exposure regardless of the interests of adopting users. We propose a probabilistic model that incorporates human cognitive biases and personal relevance in the generative model of information spread. We use the model to predict how messages containing URLs spread on Twitter. Our work shows that models of user behavior that account for cognitive factors can better describe and predict user behavior in social media.Comment: SBP 201

Validation of Dunbar's number in Twitter conversations

Modern society's increasing dependency on online tools for both work and recreation opens up unique opportunities for the study of social interactions. A large survey of online exchanges or conversations on Twitter, collected across six months involving 1.7 million individuals is presented here. We test the theoretical cognitive limit on the number of stable social relationships known as Dunbar's number. We find that users can entertain a maximum of 100-200 stable relationships in support for Dunbar's prediction. The "economy of attention" is limited in the online world by cognitive and biological constraints as predicted by Dunbar's theory. Inspired by this empirical evidence we propose a simple dynamical mechanism, based on finite priority queuing and time resources, that reproduces the observed social behavior.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Circadian patterns of Wikipedia editorial activity: A demographic analysis

Wikipedia (WP) as a collaborative, dynamical system of humans is an appropriate subject of social studies. Each single action of the members of this society, i.e. editors, is well recorded and accessible. Using the cumulative data of 34 Wikipedias in different languages, we try to characterize and find the universalities and differences in temporal activity patterns of editors. Based on this data, we estimate the geographical distribution of editors for each WP in the globe. Furthermore we also clarify the differences among different groups of WPs, which originate in the variance of cultural and social features of the communities of editors

A gauge invariant chiral unitary framework for kaon photo- and electroproduction on the proton

We present a gauge invariant approach to photoproduction of mesons on nucleons within a chiral unitary framework. The interaction kernel for meson-baryon scattering is derived from the chiral effective Lagrangian and iterated in a Bethe-Salpeter equation. Within the leading order approximation to the interaction kernel, data on kaon photoproduction from SAPHIR, CLAS and CBELSA/TAPS are analyzed in the threshold region. The importance of gauge invariance and the precision of various approximations in the interaction kernel utilized in earlier works are discussed.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figs, EPJ A styl

Coherent Moving States in Highway Traffic (Originally: Moving Like a Solid Block)

Recent advances in multiagent simulations have made possible the study of realistic traffic patterns and allow to test theories based on driver behaviour. Such simulations also display various empirical features of traffic flows, and are used to design traffic controls that maximise the throughput of vehicles in heavily transited highways. In addition to its intrinsic economic value, vehicular traffic is of interest because it may throw light on some social phenomena where diverse individuals competitively try to maximise their own utilities under certain constraints. In this paper, we present simulation results that point to the existence of cooperative, coherent states arising from competitive interactions that lead to a new phenomenon in heterogeneous highway traffic. As the density of vehicles increases, their interactions cause a transition into a highly correlated state in which all vehicles practically move with the same speed, analogous to the motion of a solid block. This state is associated with a reduced lane changing rate and a safe, high and stable flow. It disappears as the vehicle density exceeds a critical value. The effect is observed in recent evaluations of Dutch traffic data.Comment: Submitted on April 21, 1998. For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.html and http://www.parc.xerox.com/dynamics

Error and attack tolerance of complex networks

Many complex systems, such as communication networks, display a surprising degree of robustness: while key components regularly malfunction, local failures rarely lead to the loss of the global information-carrying ability of the network. The stability of these complex systems is often attributed to the redundant wiring of the functional web defined by the systems' components. In this paper we demonstrate that error tolerance is not shared by all redundant systems, but it is displayed only by a class of inhomogeneously wired networks, called scale-free networks. We find that scale-free networks, describing a number of systems, such as the World Wide Web, Internet, social networks or a cell, display an unexpected degree of robustness, the ability of their nodes to communicate being unaffected by even unrealistically high failure rates. However, error tolerance comes at a high price: these networks are extremely vulnerable to attacks, i.e. to the selection and removal of a few nodes that play the most important role in assuring the network's connectivity.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, Late

Evolution of Cooperation and Coordination in a Dynamically Networked Society

Situations of conflict giving rise to social dilemmas are widespread in society and game theory is one major way in which they can be investigated. Starting from the observation that individuals in society interact through networks of acquaintances, we model the co-evolution of the agents' strategies and of the social network itself using two prototypical games, the Prisoner's Dilemma and the Stag Hunt. Allowing agents to dismiss ties and establish new ones, we find that cooperation and coordination can be achieved through the self-organization of the social network, a result that is non-trivial, especially in the Prisoner's Dilemma case. The evolution and stability of cooperation implies the condensation of agents exploiting particular game strategies into strong and stable clusters which are more densely connected, even in the more difficult case of the Prisoner's Dilemma.Comment: 18 pages, 14 figures. to appea

On the Refractive Index of Ageing Dispersions of Laponite

Aqueous dispersion of Laponite at low ionic concentration is of interest since it undergoes structural evolution with respect to time, which is usually termed as ageing. In this work we study the refractive index behavior as a function of ageing time, concentration and temperature. We observed that the extended Lorenz-Lorentz equation fitted the refractive index dependence on concentration and temperature very well. The refractive index did not show any dependence on ageing time. However, the dependence of refractive index on concentration showed a marked change as the system underwent transition from an isotropic to a biphasic state. The slope of the refractive index-density data is remarkably close to that of water at all Laponite concentrations. In the context of transport phenomena, optical measurements such as interferometry can exploit the water-like behavior of Laponite dispersions.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, to appear in Applied Clay Scienc

Testing Propositions Derived from Twitter Studies: Generalization and Replication in Computational Social Science

Replication is an essential requirement for scientific discovery. The current study aims to generalize and replicate 10 propositions made in previous Twitter studies using a representative dataset. Our findings suggest 6 out of 10 propositions could not be replicated due to the variations of data collection, analytic strategies employed, and inconsistent measurements. The study’s contributions are twofold: First, it systematically summarized and assessed some important claims in the field, which can inform future studies. Second, it proposed a feasible approach to generating a random sample of Twitter users and its associated ego networks, which might serve as a solution for answering social-scientific questions at the individual level without accessing the complete data archive.published_or_final_versio